Programmers should hedge against AI
The economic value of software
The market has dramatically changed since I wrote “how I got wealthy without working too hard” in 2021. In 2021 you could make crazy salaries working remotely from Europe. A job interview in 2021 was a Zoom chat. In 2026 you can do 4 rounds of technical interviews, and live code a Transformer in assembler, and still you don’t get the job. Don’t worry, it’s not you, it’s the market.
Surely there are economic reasons for the lack of job opportunity right now. Something large is brewing, but also, clearly companies are waiting to understand how much AI is going to affect productivity and processes.
Is the economic value of software going to zero?
Surely, it feels like it’s now easier to start a software company than to get a job in one.
But everybody just got the same magic wand, so the value of the software company you start is also gradually going close to zero.
The only protection for software professionals going forward is:
- Get a unionised job at a large corp with legacy revenue (everyone is a free market libertarian until they can’t get a job)
- and/or financially hedge with some sort of call option on the semiconductors/datacenter industry
AGI is like death: if she is here, you don’t have a job. If you have a job, she’s not here yet. So programmers should be heavily invested in AI/datacenter stocks.
What stands out is how the democratization of powerful AI tools is compressing traditional competitive advantages. Navigating this landscape will require foresight, combining domain expertise with a clear understanding of how AI reshapes economic leverage.